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Rapid Arctic thawing could be economic timebomb, scientists say
Methane released by a thinning permafrost may trigger catastrophic climate change and cost the world $60tn
A satellite picture reveals permafrost melting around Liverpool Bay in Canada's northwest territories in the Arctic region. Photograph: Nasa
Thu 25 Jul 2013
08.30 BST
Rapid thawing of the Arctic could
trigger a catastrophic "economic timebomb" which would cost trillions
of dollars and undermine the global financial system, say a group of economists
and polar scientists.
Governments and industry have
expected the widespread warming of the Arctic region in the past 20 years to be
an economic boon, allowing the exploitation of new gas and oilfields and
enabling shipping to travel faster between Europe and Asia. But the release of
a single giant "pulse" of methane from thawing Arctic permafrost
beneath the East Siberian sea "could come with a $60tn [£39tn] global
price tag", according to the researchers who have for the first time
quantified the effects on the global economy.
Even the slow emission of a much
smaller proportion of the vast quantities of methane locked up in the Arctic
permafrost and offshore waters could trigger catastrophic climate change and
"steep" economic losses, they say.
The Arctic sea ice, which largely
melts and reforms each year, is declining at an unprecedented rate. In 2012,
it collapsed to under 3.5m sqkm by mid September, just 40%
of its usual extent in the 1970s. Because the ice is also losing its thickness,
some scientists expect the Arctic ocean to be largely free of summer ice by
2020.
The growing fear is that as the ice
retreats, the warming of the sea water will allow offshore permafrost to
release ever greater quantities of methane. A giant reservoir of the greenhouse
gas, in the form of gas hydrates on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS),
could be emitted, either slowly over 50 years or catastrophically fast over a
shorter time frame, say the researchers.
The ramifications of vanishing ice
will also be felt far from the poles, they say because the region is pivotal to
the functioning of Earth systems, such as oceans and climate. "The
imminent disappearance of the summer sea ice in the Arctic will have enormous
implications for both the acceleration of climate change, and the release of
methane from off-shore waters which are now able to warm up in the
summer," said Prof Peter Wadhams, head of the Polar ocean physics group at
Cambridge University and one of the authors of the paper published in the journal
Nature.
"This massive methane boost will
have major implications for global economies and societies. Much of those costs
would be borne by developing countries in the form of extreme weather, flooding
and impacts on health and agricultural production," he said.
According to the authors, who using
the Stern review, calculated that 80% of the extra impacts by value will occur
in the poorer economies of Africa, Asia and South America. "Inundation of
low-lying areas, extreme heat stress, droughts and storms are all magnified by
the extra methane emissions," they authors write. They argue that global
economic bodies have not taken into account the risks of rapid ice melt and
that the only economic downside to the warming of the Arctic they have
identified so far has been the possible risk of oil spills.
But, they say, economists are missing
the big picture. "Neither the World Economic Forum nor the International
Monetary Fund currently recognise the economic danger of Arctic change. [They
must] pay much more attention to this invisible time-bomb. The impacts of just
one [giant "pulse" of methane] approaches the $70-tn value of the
world economy in 2012", said Prof Gail Whiteman, at the Rotterdam School
of Management and another author.
The Nature report comes as global
shipping companies prepare to send a record number of vessels across the north
of Russia later in 2013, slashing miles travelled between Asia and Europe by
over 35% and cutting costs up to 40%.
According to Russian authorities, 218
ships from Korea, China, Japan, Norway, Germany and elsewhere have so far applied
for permission to follow the "Northern sea route" (NSR)
this year. This route uses the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska and is
only open for a few months each year with an icebreaker.
But following 2012's record collapse
of the Arctic sea ice, shipping companies are gaining confidence to use the
route. In 2012, only 46 ships sailed its entire length from the Atlantic to
Pacific oceans and in 2011 only four. The route can save even medium-sized bulk
carrier 10-15 days and hundreds of tonnes of bunker fuel on a journey between
northern Norway and China.
Satellite data collated from the US National snow and ice data centre in Boulder, Colorado this week showed ice loss now accelerating and, at 8.2m sqkm (3.2m square miles) approaching the same extent as during last year's record melt. Over 130,000 sqkm of sea ice melted between July 1 and 15. "Compared to the 1981 to 2010 average, ice extent on July 15 was 1.06m sqkm (409,000 square miles) below average," said a spokesman.
NOTE : MAGUS EDITOR HAS INSERTED ADDENDUM INFO LINK INTO THIS IMAGE BELOW : NOTE
This article was amended on 24
July 2013 because an earlier version of the article said the Arctic sea ice
"collapsed to under 3.5m sqkm by mid September" in 2013. This has
been corrected to say 2012.
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Thu 25 Jul 2013 08.30 BST
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